Current Research
Completed Manuscripts
The Condorcet Jury Theorem under Ambiguity
The Condorcet Jury Theorem (CJT) serves as powerful evidence of the epistemic merits of the majority rule. The classical theorem assumes voter competence, i.e., that every voter is more likely than a coin flip to vote for the correct option. This paper reevaluates if and how we can presuppose voter competence in light of ambiguity. I argue that voter competence can fail if voters' beliefs are imprecise, even if we assume seemingly epistemically advantageous conditions such as rationality, honesty, and minimal fidelity of beliefs. The paper highlights that collective decision-making rules that perform well in situations of risk might not extend to collective decision-making under ambiguous prospects. As one solution to these results, the paper advocates including abstention as a voting option.
Strategyproofness for Equality's Sake
This paper argues that strategic voting can create power imbalances between citizens. This can be problematic insofar that we might be committed to the principle "one person one vote" on the basis that everyone should have the same opportunity to influence political decisions. Yet, equal votes and equal voting power can come apart in non-ideal settings, namely, when voters don't have the same ability to vote strategically. Thus this paper spells out a new normative foundation for strategyproofness.
Feel free to contact me for a copy!
Work in Process
Models, Measurement and Manipulability
Manipulation is bad – on such much most would agree. It gets tricker, however, if we ask ourselves why manipulation is bad. The answer to this question, while interesting in itself, is also pre-requisite if we want to assess how vulnerable our institution are to manipulation. In this paper I want to explore how to measure the vulnerability of strategic voting via the voting rule. In essence, the message of the paper is quite simple: What legitimizes a particular institutional design (e.g., a voting rule) also determines the potential harm of manipulation. This potential harm, in turn, is crucial to determining which measure of manipulation is appropriate.
Heuristic Strategic Voting: Why more votes doesn’t mean more manipulation
This is a paper based on a simulation that I wrote which models voters as boundedly rational. They vote repeatedly (such as reacting to polls) and use a simple rule to make strategic decisions instead of orthodox rational choice theory. The results suggest, contrary to the literature, that giving voters more votes will not necessarily lead to more strategic effects on the outcome.
Paul Klee Pavillon der Zahlen, 1918 (Pavilion of Numbers)